After reviewing various projections about the UK’s future economy without a potential deal with the European Union, economist Harry Flame said in a report that it would not make much difference for the country to follow the WTO trade rules instead. However, there are other potential negative effects on the British.
Goes economist emeritus professor Harry Flame In the Sieps Report By 15 different predictions about how the UK will be affected economically by leaving the European Union and instead following the WTO’s international trade rules towards the European Union. How important the WTO rules are depends on whether or not the European Union and the United Kingdom have succeeded in agreeing on other rules and tariffs this year.
Flam’s review shows that the negative impacts of the WTO track are small and very uncertain. The difference could be in some or some percent of the GDP, Flam writes and says: In other words, Brexit does not mean a disaster for the British economy.
The statistical impacts according to Brexit studies on the UK’s GDP show a 15-year growth gap between 0.2 and 10.7 per cent with WTO rules. The big differences in expectations are due to the fact that the studies partly cover different things.
Among the negative impacts that Harry Flame is addressing is the rise in customs and administrative costs for British companies from zero to 15 billion pounds a year. It is nearly twice the UK’s annual net fee as the EU member states Flam and continues: if London’s financial sector loses the right to operate freely with the EU, its position as a global financial center could be threatened as well.
The series report concludes with a comment that it would be desirable to finally be able to clearly and unambiguously put the costs of Brexit out of the European Union. Most likely, however, the costs remain unclear and the UK will not be able to provide a model for other EU countries that might consider withdrawing in the future.